Water - the lifeline of civilisations - is fast turning into the world's most contested resource. As strategic thinker Dr. Brahma Chellaney writes in "Water, Peace and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis", the coming decades may witness more disputes over water than over oil or territory. For India, this is not a distant threat - it's an unfolding reality.

History is full of cautionary tales - from the decline of the Sumerians to the abandonment of Fatehpur Sikri due to water shortages. Today, cities like Sanaa, Abu Dhabi, and Las Vegas are inching towards similar danger. India's crisis is among the world's most acute. The country supports 18% of the global population but has access to only 4% of the world's freshwater. Nearly 600 million Indians face high to extreme water stress, according to NITI Aayog's Composite Water Management Index. In many cities, groundwater - the main source of drinking water - is depleting so fast that experts warn of an approaching "Day Zero" scenario, when taps will literally run dry.

What's driving the crisis:

1. Over-extraction of groundwater:
India is the largest extractor of groundwater in the world. Unregulated borewells and unchecked agricultural pumping have led to dangerously falling water tables in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.

2. Population growth and urbanisation:
Rapid urban expansion and a growing population are overwhelming already stressed municipal water systems. Cities like Delhi, Chennai, and Bengaluru are struggling to meet daily water demand.

3. Agricultural dependence:
Agriculture consumes nearly 80% of India's freshwater, often through inefficient methods like flood irrigation. Water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and paddy worsen the imbalance, especially in dry regions.

4. Climate change:
Erratic rainfall, delayed monsoons, and prolonged droughts have made water availability unpredictable. Glacial melt in the Himalayas - the source of many major rivers - adds another layer of uncertainty.

5. Pollution:
Industrial waste, untreated sewage, and chemical runoff have turned many rivers - including the Yamuna and Sabarmati - into toxic streams. India ranks among the lowest globally on the water quality index.

6. Poor water management:
Fragmented governance, leaking pipelines, and lack of long-term planning continue to undermine water conservation and equitable distribution.

The consequences are already visible.

i) Near "Day Zero" events: Chennai's 2019 crisis, when reservoirs went dry, offered a glimpse of what lies ahead for other cities.

ii) Social unrest: Scarce water has led to violent clashes and protests in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka.

iii) Health hazards: Millions lack access to safe drinking water, and waterborne diseases claim thousands of lives each year.

iv) Economic disruption: Water shortages directly impact agriculture and industry, causing food inflation and productivity loss.

Strategic and geopolitical experts say water security is national security. In South Asia, shared rivers like the Indus and the Brahmaputra have become potential flashpoints, as upstream dam-building raises tensions between neighbours. Without stronger regional cooperation and sustainable management, water could become a tool of political leverage and conflict.

India's path must blend conservation, innovation, and cooperation. This means:

i) Expanding rainwater harvesting and recycling wastewater.
ii) Promoting micro-irrigation and water-efficient crops.
iii) Restoring wetlands and traditional water bodies.
iv) Strengthening inter-state and cross-border water sharing frameworks.

How India manages its water today will shape its social stability, food security, and regional harmony tomorrow. The choice is stark: act now, or let water - the very element that sustains us - become a source of crisis and conflict.
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